In the latest China Matters Explores policy brief, I argue outright war across the Taiwan Strait is highly unlikely. Rather, the PRC is likely to use 'all means short of war' to achieve the paramount goal of unification. A PRC pressure campaign to force Taiwan to negotiate unification would entail a mix of tactics including economic coercion, diplomatic isolation, cyber operations, and information warfare.
The strategic implications for Australia are profound. Taiwan typifies the kind of vibrant, free and democratic society that Australia wants to see flourish across the Indo-Pacific region. Australia clearly benefits, both economically and strategically, from the continued prosperity, stability and security of Taiwan.
The policy brief examines various scenarios and argues that Australia needs to clearly articulate its position on Taiwan while working with regional partners to deter Chinese military action. The focus should be on strengthening deterrence through diplomatic and economic means, while avoiding inflammatory rhetoric that could escalate tensions.
Understanding Beijing's calculus and the tools at its disposal is essential for Australian policymakers as they navigate this complex and evolving challenge.